There are defined roles which I am comfortable with: John Axford obviously as closer. Marco Estrada in long relief and a spot starter. Zack Braddock against left handed batters late and occasional 8th or 9th inning in 4+ run games. Tim Dillard would be better off starting in Nashville every 5th day. Sergio Mitre is still on the team too.
That brings us to the setup man. Your choices: incumbent Kameron Loe and challenger Latroy Hawkins. Let's look at some stats:
| Hawkins | Loe | |
|---|---|---|
| IP | 15.1 | 32.2 |
| ERA | 0.59 | 5.23 |
| WHIP | 1.304 | 1.255 |
| SO/9 | 4.1 | 7.4 |
| runs above replacement | 6 | -2 |
| WAR (wins above replacement) | 0.6 | -0.3 |
| WPA (win probability added) | 0.56 | -0.99 |
| clutch | 0.22 | -0.86 |
| shutdowns/meltdowns | 6/1 | 16/8 |
Ok, so these are the most significant stats I could find to compare the 2.
so what does it mean?? Hawkins is giving up more base runners, striking out less but despite that has been way more effective. Hawkins also has a smaller sample size pitching less than half the innings that Loe has.
All of the advanced stats suggest Loe has had a negative effect this year and Hawkins has been overwhelmingly positive. I'm not saying Loe doesn't have a place on this team but whether you buy into the advanced stats or not, doesn't a 0.59 ERA demand a more important position in the bullpen??
Or we could make a trade.
Yeah because we have anything left to give up. Don't see that happening.
There are so many factors that go into this decision. Some additional questions that come to mind...
ReplyDelete1) Has Loe been overused?
2) Are there any trends that exist when you look at Loe's outings. For example does he tend to give up runs when he pitches the day before or two days before? If so, then adjusting when he is "available" may change his stats.
3) Their WHIP is almost equal which suggests that they are allowing a similar number of base runners per inning. If Hawks' sample size was equal to Loe's would his ERA rise? Would his WAR decrease? Most likely Yes to both questions.
3) Hawk is old, and just came off of a significant injury. Can he even pitch consecutive days?