More numbers and historical comparisons

Want more statistical comparisons??  Of course you do.

This time we're taking career numbers (Brewers career numbers, that is) and comparing what they would average out to every 162 games.

These are raw numbers, 1 AB and you qualify.

you can see all the numbers here

Ready?? Go.

Statistical oddities in baseball history

If you've been a regular to my little slice of the internet here you know I love working with numbers.  Looking for material for my newest hobby making sporcle quizzes I got a bit distracted and found some fun numbers.

Davy Force had 1 career home run in 4406 plate appearances (or 4407, Baseball Reference and Fangraphs have different numbers).  Pete Rose had 15861 plate appearances.  If Force had made it to Rose's number he would have had 3.6 HR's.  Force was listed at 5' 4" 130 lbs, not surprising he wasn't a power hitter.  If Barry Bonds had made it to 15861 PA's he would have had 959 HR's.

The greatest Brewers team ever

Inspired by one of my favorite baseball stat geek blogs Beyond the Boxscore and their All True Brewers Team I wanted to take a different approach.

What if you could field a team consisting of players that had the best single seasons in franchise history.

How we're going to do this:

• Strictly based on WAR (wins above replacement) according to Baseball Reference
• 5 starting pitchers
• 7 relief pitchers (6 with a DH substituted in for an AL lineup)
• 2 relievers will be converted starters to fill long relief needs
• 1 will be the closer
• 2 backup infielders
• 2 backup outfielders
• 1 backup catcher

On home runs and history

Well the offseason has left me very little material so far other than a couple of worthless press conferences.

So a couple of days ago I was killing some time before the Iowa and Green Bay football games this past weekend by playing my favorite time waster sporcle.

I got to a couple home run quizzes

which led me to this one

***stop now and play them first***

So you want to buy a first baseman

With no actual baseball to write about (what, they're still playing...I had no idea) and another boring Packers win on Sunday I started looking at some numbers (and thanks to fangraphs for killing the majority of my Sunday).

Ok, so there are a couple first basemen about to hit free agency once the season ends, perhaps you've heard of them their names are Albert and Prince.  Both of these guys are going to get roughly $87 bajillion* contracts in free agency this winter but should they??**

Quick hit: magic number 2

So with the Cardinals bullpen meltdown on Thursday the Brewers magic number is down to 2 and would take events of epic proportions to not win the division.

Odds of the Brewers going 0-6 at home at their current .693 record: .000837 or .0837% or roughly 1 out of every 1200 times (and keep in mind the competition is below average so that percentage should probably be even lower)

Odds of the Cardinals going 6-0 at their current .551 (they have 3 at home and 3 on the road and I don't want to get too deep into this so we're going with that) is .027983 or 2.7983% about 1 out of every 37 times.

So your cumulative probability using these numbers is....

.0000234

That's about 1 out of every 42,700 chances

Get the champagne ready kids


follow me on the twitter

Let's play with some numbers

One up, one down, and the Brewers still gain a game in the division race to push it to a nine game lead.

Magic number is 25 lowest in baseball and 1 to put the Astros out of their misery.

 98.1% probability to win the division and 0.1% chance to drop behind St. Louis but still finish ahead of Atlanta for the Wild Card (double epic collapse).

So with 32 games to go what exactly do the Brewers have to look at to stay motivated:

First the division.

Baseball Prospectus projects 94-68, current pace is 95-67.  To make it to 95 wins the Cardinals would have to go 28-6.  If the Brewers only go .500 for the final 32 they would be 93-69, the Cardinals would have to go 26-8.  If the Cardinals stay at their current pace they go 84-78, BP has them 86-76.  To get to 86 wins the Brewers would have to go 9-23.

I think they're safe there.

How about home field in the first round??

Win the division and stay ahead of the West winner and you get the Braves instead of the Phillies.  The Diamondbacks are 1 game better than San Francisco and 2 games clear of St. Louis.  Adjust the Cardinals numbers accordingly, I think they're safely in the 2 slot at worst.

What about the Phillies??

Should we even go there??

BP puts them at 101-61.  Current pace gets them 105-57.  To get to 105 the Brewers have to go 28-4.  Ok no.  To get to 101, 24-8...doable if it's 32 home games. 

If the Phillies merely go .500 the rest of the way that gets them 100-62.  For 95-67 they would have to go 13-23.

Is that possible??  Is there 23 losses left on this schedule??

2 more with the Mets
3 at home with the Marlins
4 at Cincinnati and 3 at Florida
home for 3 with Atlanta
another 7 game road trip with 4 in Milwaukee and 3 in Houston
4 at home with St. Louis and 4 with Washington
season ending road trip with 3 in New York and Atlanta

Not likely, bring on the Braves

follow me on the twitter

How good is John Axford??

This is going numbers heavy, if you dislike numbers abandon ship immediately.

Disregard opening day, seriously you should forget that ever game ever happened. There are a lot of outstanding closers and John Axford has quietly put himself near the top. Monday's save put him 1 behind Craig Kimbrel and tied with Brian Wilson and Jose Valverde. That's the big number, let's see exactly how well our mustachioed hero stacks up against the other closers.

All stats via fangraphs after Sunday's games.

Brewers v Cardinals by the numbers

After wasting a ton of time getting you prepared for a four team battle royale, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh both were thrown over the top rope leaving us with St. Louis and Milwaukee. Both teams swept their weekend series setting up another huge series starting Tuesday in St. Louis. Now that we've eliminated the dead weight we can compare the two survivors side by side.

The two teams seem to stack up pretty equally, let's examine the numbers:

Hard times on the road

The Crew got destroyed 12-2 against the Yankees.

On the road.

How is this still even possible??

This team is too good to be so bad on the road. Just how bad?? Let's take a look.

(Again if you don't like looking at numbers and tables, you can stop here)

Loe V Hawkins round 2

While waiting out the rain delay in The Chicago city dump Wrigley Field guess I have some time to delve deeper into the 8th inning situation I looked at last night.

Commenter TC brings up some excellent points.

Is Loe overworked and should he be going back to back days all the time?? The numbers suggest pitching 2 days in a row doesn't have much of an effect. Actually he's better the 2nd day.

should we give Latroy the 8th

I'm torn on what to think about the Brewers' bullpen.

There are defined roles which I am comfortable with: John Axford obviously as closer. Marco Estrada in long relief and a spot starter. Zack Braddock against left handed batters late and occasional 8th or 9th inning in 4+ run games. Tim Dillard would be better off starting in Nashville every 5th day. Sergio Mitre is still on the team too.

That brings us to the setup man. Your choices: incumbent Kameron Loe and challenger Latroy Hawkins. Let's look at some stats: