Let's play with some numbers

One up, one down, and the Brewers still gain a game in the division race to push it to a nine game lead.

Magic number is 25 lowest in baseball and 1 to put the Astros out of their misery.

 98.1% probability to win the division and 0.1% chance to drop behind St. Louis but still finish ahead of Atlanta for the Wild Card (double epic collapse).

So with 32 games to go what exactly do the Brewers have to look at to stay motivated:

First the division.

Baseball Prospectus projects 94-68, current pace is 95-67.  To make it to 95 wins the Cardinals would have to go 28-6.  If the Brewers only go .500 for the final 32 they would be 93-69, the Cardinals would have to go 26-8.  If the Cardinals stay at their current pace they go 84-78, BP has them 86-76.  To get to 86 wins the Brewers would have to go 9-23.

I think they're safe there.

How about home field in the first round??

Win the division and stay ahead of the West winner and you get the Braves instead of the Phillies.  The Diamondbacks are 1 game better than San Francisco and 2 games clear of St. Louis.  Adjust the Cardinals numbers accordingly, I think they're safely in the 2 slot at worst.

What about the Phillies??

Should we even go there??

BP puts them at 101-61.  Current pace gets them 105-57.  To get to 105 the Brewers have to go 28-4.  Ok no.  To get to 101, 24-8...doable if it's 32 home games. 

If the Phillies merely go .500 the rest of the way that gets them 100-62.  For 95-67 they would have to go 13-23.

Is that possible??  Is there 23 losses left on this schedule??

2 more with the Mets
3 at home with the Marlins
4 at Cincinnati and 3 at Florida
home for 3 with Atlanta
another 7 game road trip with 4 in Milwaukee and 3 in Houston
4 at home with St. Louis and 4 with Washington
season ending road trip with 3 in New York and Atlanta

Not likely, bring on the Braves

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