quick hit, Braun can not has cheezburger

 little experiment, might toy with this when I have more time.  I give you Ryan Braun's near inside the park HR via LOLbuilder.

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Revisiting my old nemesis

I've laid off of him for a while since he had seemingly turned his season around back in July but my old friend Yuni B has reverted back to the May version of Yuni B.

Ok I've come to accept the fact that the Brewers are going to finish the season and go into the playoffs with Betancourt as their shortstop.  Yuni has to be the most nerve wracking thing about this team since Kameron Loe was relieved of his 8th inning duties.  We know his defense is going to be consistently bad but his hitting is incredibly inconsistent.  May Yuni went a putrid .178/.200/.289.  July Yuni had a respectable .299/.315/.437 (let's face it he isn't ever going to have a high OBP).  August Yuni, while the team has soared, is back into a valley.  Since 8/15 he is 6 out of 59 with .102/.117/.169 line.

Oh boy.

Googling the Cardinals

St. Louis is coming to Milwaukee for the last time of 2011 this week.  

Ok, we learned all about St. Louis a while back and used a bunch of numbers to compare the Cardinals and Brewers but we should get to know the Cardinals personally. To do that we'll turn to the almighty Google. Google knows all.*

Let's start with the manager Tony LaRussa:

Brewers in SI

Hearing that the Brewers were going to be on the cover of Sports Illustrated was pretty exciting news.  That said, I get really nervous about that whole jinx thing.

I don't normally believe in these things like the SI jinx or the Madden jinx.

Until 2009 when my college team made a rare appearance on SI.  I don't think I've touched it since then but I dug it out to bring back the proper emotion.

Other items in Matt Holliday's ear

In a bizarre incident Monday night in St. Louis, Cardinals OF Matt Holliday had to leave the game against the Dodgers when a moth took refuge in his ear.

Seriously.

While as odd as that was, this was not the end of the story.  A source close to us here (a good friend of mine took ear moth removal class* with the Cardinals' trainer) has more to add to this story.  And it gets good.

Let's play with some numbers

One up, one down, and the Brewers still gain a game in the division race to push it to a nine game lead.

Magic number is 25 lowest in baseball and 1 to put the Astros out of their misery.

 98.1% probability to win the division and 0.1% chance to drop behind St. Louis but still finish ahead of Atlanta for the Wild Card (double epic collapse).

So with 32 games to go what exactly do the Brewers have to look at to stay motivated:

First the division.

Baseball Prospectus projects 94-68, current pace is 95-67.  To make it to 95 wins the Cardinals would have to go 28-6.  If the Brewers only go .500 for the final 32 they would be 93-69, the Cardinals would have to go 26-8.  If the Cardinals stay at their current pace they go 84-78, BP has them 86-76.  To get to 86 wins the Brewers would have to go 9-23.

I think they're safe there.

How about home field in the first round??

Win the division and stay ahead of the West winner and you get the Braves instead of the Phillies.  The Diamondbacks are 1 game better than San Francisco and 2 games clear of St. Louis.  Adjust the Cardinals numbers accordingly, I think they're safely in the 2 slot at worst.

What about the Phillies??

Should we even go there??

BP puts them at 101-61.  Current pace gets them 105-57.  To get to 105 the Brewers have to go 28-4.  Ok no.  To get to 101, 24-8...doable if it's 32 home games. 

If the Phillies merely go .500 the rest of the way that gets them 100-62.  For 95-67 they would have to go 13-23.

Is that possible??  Is there 23 losses left on this schedule??

2 more with the Mets
3 at home with the Marlins
4 at Cincinnati and 3 at Florida
home for 3 with Atlanta
another 7 game road trip with 4 in Milwaukee and 3 in Houston
4 at home with St. Louis and 4 with Washington
season ending road trip with 3 in New York and Atlanta

Not likely, bring on the Braves

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woooooo Cubs vs Cardinals

 I was all excited to actually watch a Brewers game on tv, only to see my guide 5 minutes before game time say Cubs/Cardinals.

What??

OK so Fox decided to bombard the country with NL Central games in their national TV slot this week (sorry Houston, not you) and of course living in Iowa I get stuck with the crapfest that is Chicago/St. Louis.  Should I just revert to the Brewers radio or try and find a crappy internet feed for the Brewers??

No.

I am going to sit through Cubs/Cards and blog my reactions.  I'm going to go ahead and predict this is going roughly 99% hate.

Let's roll.

How can you fire Jim Hendry

Damn you Cubs.

How dare you fire Jim Hendry, he has been instrumental in the Cubs success since 1995 and you're giving up on him now??

So not fair, I mean let's look at what he has accomplished since he took over as GM in 2002:

What's Ken Macha up to these days

Me and my staff here at Brewers in 11 (so, me) had a chance to sit down with our beloved*  former manager Ken Macha to find out what he's been up to since getting unfairly** fired after last season. So what exactly has he been up to?? Wow, you wouldn't believe it:

Could the Brewers become the best home team ever??

Totally possible.

The 61 Yankees went 65-16 at home, the Brewers are now 46-15 meaning if they go 20-0 in their remaining games they can overtake Maris and Mantle's juggernaut.

Just saying.





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Let's stay classy Brewers fans

I heard a comment on the radio last night about the Brewers that included the magic word I don't want to hear.

Respect.

Yeah I get excited when the talking heads on Around the Horn or PTI or any other national media talk about the Brewers, and yes I've noticed the lack of national coverage for what is now a consensus top 5 team in MLB this week.

I could go on.

A late night call to the Roenicke home

Hello Ron



Who is this??




Nevermind that, I have some important advice for you




Wait...what is going on here.

How good is John Axford??

This is going numbers heavy, if you dislike numbers abandon ship immediately.

Disregard opening day, seriously you should forget that ever game ever happened. There are a lot of outstanding closers and John Axford has quietly put himself near the top. Monday's save put him 1 behind Craig Kimbrel and tied with Brian Wilson and Jose Valverde. That's the big number, let's see exactly how well our mustachioed hero stacks up against the other closers.

All stats via fangraphs after Sunday's games.

Pirates cancel season finale in Milwaukee

After getting swept again this weekend making them 0-6 this season and 5-34 since 2006 at Miller Park the Pittsburgh Pirates have called off the scheduled season ending September 25-28 series in Milwaukee.

When asked why he made this unprecedented decision, General Manager Neal Huntington defended it:

It makes sense on so many levels. We save money not having to travel to Milwaukee. We get a 4 day head start working on next year's 4th place team. Seriously why wouldn't we do this??

All star Andrew McCutchen:

I don't really agree with it but it saves me a trip to Milwaukee...and we get 4 extra days of offseason...and we don't have to go back to Milwaukee, I hate going to Milwaukee.

Manager Clint Hurdle:

Whatever

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Home Sweet Home

At the current percentages:

If the Brewers played all 162 games at home they would go 120-42

If the Brewers played all 162 games on the road they would go 68-94

wow



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yeah I saw that coming

Marco Estrada and 4 relievers combine for a 1-0 shutout!! Yeah, did not see that coming.


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Hello America!!

Yeah the Brewers are in first place, 4 game lead over the Cardinals but not exactly a TV draw. They get their chance to show America that the Brewers are a legitimate contender come October today versus the Pirates. Such a huge opportunity to get some national TV time.

And their starting pitcher is Marco Estrada??

Nothing against Estrada, he's been decent in relief and as a fill in when Greinke opened the season on the DL.

But seriously, enjoy watching Estrada go 5 innings (hopefully), give up 3 runs (hopefully), and hope the offense shows up and the bullpen can bring it home (lot of hoping going on this afternoon).

Yes I know it's just one game and it only means 1/162 of the season but I want them to get a little more national attention instead of hearing why Albert Pujols is full of fail because the Cardinals keep losing to the Brewers.

/end rant

ok, let's go Brewers

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Why the Brewers are hot all of a sudden

5 wins in a row on the road.

13-1 in their last 14.

So what turned this team around?? Better starting pitching?? Better defense?? Improved base running?? Counsell finally gets a hit??

No.

Two words: Rickie Weeks.

At the moment Weeks hot hurt the Brewers were 1/2 game out of first, since then: one extra inning loss and a whole lot of wins...and now a 5 game lead.

Obviously Weeks was the problem.

Save me your stats. .272/.346/.478 with 19 HR's and 71 runs is easily replaceable when you have guys like Felipe Lopez and Josh Wilson and Jerry Hairston Jr. Honestly I have no idea why Ron Roenicke wasn't playing these guys ahead of Weeks, he was obviously holding this team down. Ok Lopez and Hairston weren't on the team before Weeks went down, but Melvin should have known this earlier. That's why he's the best in the business.

Sorry Rickie, I know you were an all star this year but maybe the Brewers would be better off if your injury would linger sometime into November then they can trade you for another journeyman infielder or maybe just a boatload of cash.

I know a player shouldn't lose his job due to injury but sometimes it happens. Tom Brady wouldn't have 3 Super Bowl wins if Drew Bledsoe didn't get hurt. This is one of those rare cases. You can't argue the results the triumvirate of Lopez/Hairston/Wilson has achieved.

Good luck with the Buffalo Bills Rickie.


*if you made it this far thinking this is serious leave your name below and I will ridicule you mercilessly*

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Style points don't count

Lead story, it's a win over second place St. Louis, a 4 game lead, and a guarantee of returning home in first place with the suddenly Pirate-like Pirates and Dodgers coming to Miller Park. Not to look ahead too much, still 2 games left at Busch Stadium and a chance to put some breathing room on the division lead.

No it wasn't pretty, the usual suspects reared their ugly heads: bad defense and bad base running.

Bases loaded with nobody out and 3-4-5 coming up in the 5th gets 0 runs.

Your heroes in extra innings were of course Casey McGehee and Yuni B (long time fan!! heh)

Honestly I was hoping for 1 in this series, now I'm hoping for 2...or maybe even 3.

And some one get Chris Narveson a pair of safety scissors please!!!

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Brewers v Cardinals by the numbers

After wasting a ton of time getting you prepared for a four team battle royale, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh both were thrown over the top rope leaving us with St. Louis and Milwaukee. Both teams swept their weekend series setting up another huge series starting Tuesday in St. Louis. Now that we've eliminated the dead weight we can compare the two survivors side by side.

The two teams seem to stack up pretty equally, let's examine the numbers:

Around the infield episode 3

When we last checked in on our rag tag gang of infielders they were watching their more talented teammates in the all star game.

*Flashback to July 13*

I'm sick of these idiot bloggers making fun of us guys

Yeah no kidding

Yeah!!

Who are you??

This probably isn't fair

The Brewers play the Astros starting tonight and with the Brewers coming off an impressive 8-1 homestand versus the worst team in the Majors (on pace for 54-108 bad) this should be an opportunity to extend their 3 game lead over St. Louis. The pitching matchups are kind of a joke:

• Gallardo - Happ
• Narveson - Myers
• Greinke - Norris

Should we apologize in advance??

That's a combined 28-17 versus 12-31

Combined ERA 4.13 versus 4.64

As bad as the Brewers are on the road (21-35) the Astros are even worse at home (19-37)

We're looking at an easy sweep

But the series is in Houston.....anyone feel comfortable beating a horrible home team with a horrible road team??

Not me.

Next stop after Houston is another 3 with the Cardinals.

Anybody looking past the Astros toward another huge series in St. Louis starting Tuesday stop it.  There are 9 games left with the Cardinals and 41 games with other teams, keep focus and take care of business against these lesser foes and we'll take the Central down easily.

Why does this series make me nervous, it shouldn't.

This should be an easy series but it probably won't be. 

I'm stressing about a series with the worst team in the league before it even starts.

OK I should probably just stop there


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Your guide to the stretch run, part 4 Milwaukee

With a little over 2 months left in the season the NL Central appears to be headed for a four team race. Here is your handy cheat sheet for the teams and their corresponding cities. You decide who has the advantage.  Up next Milwaukee.

Part 1, Pittsburg(h)
Part 2, Cincinnati
Part 3, St. Louis

At last we get to the Brewers and Milwaukee.

Yes I write this with Brewer-colored glasses (and naturally those glasses are full of beer), this is a Brewers blog, but I'll try to keep it neutral.....ok that isn't happening